金融时报（8.24)奥运前期行情的破灭，使不少人开始期待奥运后期的反弹

       INVESTORS had long ago seen their hopes dashed of a pre-Olympic boom in China’s stockmarket. Indeed, among the shares hardest hit this summer were those that unscrupulous（肆无忌惮的） brokers had touted as sure-fire winners from the games: restaurants selling Peking duck, hotels, and the like. But after a sudden 8% gain on August 20th, an even more tantalising（非常着急的） idea emerged: could they benefit from a post-Olympic bounce（反弹）?

    奥运前期行情的破灭，使不少人开始期待奥运后期的反弹。

        A number of foreign fund managers have begun poking around the market, impressed by the valuations. Even after this week’s rally, stocks were trading at 14 times 2008 earnings—not a steal（以极其低廉的价格买的东西）, but still far cheaper than the 40 times earnings at which they traded at their 2007 peak.

    大量外国基金经理开始关注中国股市，现在股票的市盈率约１４，虽然算不是特便宜，但是较之07高峰时的40倍的市盈率已便宜许多。

       The catalyst for this week’s rally was a pervasive rumour that often crops up when sentiment becomes too jaded（厌倦的）: government intervention, either to prop up （支持）the market or the economy. One of the cheerleaders(啦啦队长), Frank Gong, JPMorgan’s chief economist in Asia, said China’s top officials were “carefully considering” an economic-stimulus package of 200-400 billion yuan ($29 billion-58 billion), or about 1-1.5% of GDP. There was also talk of repatriating（遣返） some Chinese money that had been tied up in American dollar assets, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac（房利美、房利产）, the troubled mortgage agencies; of reinstating（恢复） rebates（折扣） for exporters; and of rolling back appreciation of the yuan. Among the stocks that rose strongly were Baosteel, China Railway, and some beleaguered property stocks. All are potential

    这个星期以来市场恢复信心的催化剂便是关于政府干预的传言。政府干预要么是支持市场，要么是支持经济发展，它常常突然出现，以至于公众对此已有些厌倦。

       But for all the excitement, there were plenty who wanted to throw cold water on the party—indeed, the market fell back on August 21st. Those included people bullish（看涨的） on China’s economic outlook, who reason that with reported GDP still growing above 10% and inflation high, the government has no intention of intervening in the economy. Indeed, they argue, such stimulus could be inflationary.

    尽管公众都十分兴奋，还是有很多人想向他们泼冷水。事实正是如此，在8月21日股市又下挫。

       Meanwhile, those more pessimistic on China’s prospects said such measures would do no good anyway. Trade is the main vulnerability. They note that container traffic to Europe has stalled after double-digit growth earlier this year, and that it has been contracting to America since 2007. The outlook for trade with Japan is none too bright, either.

    同时也有人持对中国的前景持更悲观的情绪。他们说这些措施无论如何对市场也不会有太大的好处。贸易是最主要的薄弱环节。中国对欧盟的贸易在今年早期10个百分点以上的增长，大量运向欧盟的集装箱现已停运。自2007年以来中国对美的贸易已收缩，而对日本的贸易前景十分不明朗。

       Meanwhile, estimates for the growth of company earnings, though still high, are coming down, too. In January profits were expected to rise by 22% this year; now growth looks more like 14% and dropping, says Markus Rosgen, Asia strategist for Citibank. The only silver lining （一线希望）to all this, he adds wryly（表情冷漠地）, is that a bottom, even if not in sight yet, is a lot closer than it was.

    同时，对公司盈利的估计，虽然还是很高，但已开始冷却下来。在2月人们估计今年的利润率增长22%，而现在增长率更可能是14%甚至更低。但是还是有一线希望，因为花旗的亚洲战略家Markus Rosgen表情冷漠地说，尽管现在看不出是不是市场最低点，但是已经十分接近了。